by Kung Fu Zu
The House Republican leadership has let it be known that it will take up the question of immigration reform later this year. House Republicans know the 1000+ page Senate bill 744 is very unpopular, so they are planning to bring several smaller bills to a vote. Each bill will deal with separate issues pertaining to immigration reform. Word is that once the various smaller bills have been passed, the House Republican leadership will then bring these bills to a Senate/House conference committee in order to “find common ground.” Eric Cantor has made it clear that the House Republican leadership is especially interested in passing some type of “Dream Act,” i.e. amnesty for illegal aliens who were brought to the country as children. That the House Republican leadership would even consider such actions shows how out of touch they are with their base and the country.
Establishment Republicans have put forward several reasons to support amnesty. Some are pushing the theme that “if Republicans don’t champion amnesty they will have no chance to win future presidential elections.” Others claim Hispanics are a “natural Republican constituency” due to their social conservatism as witnessed by their Church attendance and strong family values.
These claims can be easily disproved by data which is readily accessible to not only establishment Republican pundits, but to anyone interested in learning the truth about Hispanic political leanings and voting records.
Let’s take a look at some facts about Hispanic voting and political beliefs.
1. Hispanics have voted overwhelmingly Democrat in every presidential election over the last thirty years.
2. When Bush won almost 40% (still less than half) of the Hispanic vote it was at the peak of the housing boom, i.e. the peak of Hispanic prosperity.
3. After Reagan granted amnesty in 1986, Bush Sr. only received 30% of the Hispanic vote in 1988.
4. A 2011 Pew Survey asked Hispanics “Would you rather pay higher taxes to support a larger government or pay lower taxes and have a smaller government?” By a margin of 79% to 19%, Hispanics chose higher taxes and bigger government.
5. In the 2008 Exit Polls, voters were asked, “Which comes closer to your view? “Government should do more to solve problems” or “Government is doing too many things better left to business.” Hispanics were in favor of bigger government 71% to 29%. The “bigger government” answer to this question gives a strong indication a person would vote, i.e. Democrat.
6. In 2011, about 53% of Hispanic births were out of wedlock.
7. In one survey, Hispanics favored homosexual marriage 53% to 34%.
8. In Reuters’ analysis of the 2012 Exit Polls, Hispanic voters supported the Democratic position vs. the Republican position by 57% to 36%.
9. Even though they are mostly Catholic, Hispanics supported Obama’s position that “Health insurance organizations should be required to cover contraceptives” by a 68-11% margin. This is a question of religious freedom which is being encroached upon, yet Hispanics seem to discount this.
10. Data from Reuters indicated Hispanics support raising taxes on wealthy Americans by a 73-7% margin.
11. Hispanics support Obamacare by a margin of 69-31%.
There is plenty more information confirming Hispanics favor Democratic policies.
Given the above information, we need to ask why “Why do Hispanics vote Democrat?” I believe the main reason is straightforward. On average, they earn much less than non-Hispanic Whites.
A. According to the latest Census estimate “42% of Hispanics are poor or near-poor”
B. According to the U.S. Census, “Educational attainment of foreign born Hispanics was lower than that of all other race, Hispanic origin, and nativity groups. The percentage of foreign born Hispanics who completed at least high school was 48%”.
C. The share of U.S. born Hispanics who hold a college degree is less than half that of Whites. Twice as many U.S. born Hispanics lack a high school degree, as compared to Whites.
D. The average family income of Hispanics relative to Whites, as calculated by the Census bureau, has gone from 70% to 60% from 1972 to 2011.
E. Hispanics earn on average 40% less than Whites.
Based on these facts, Republicans need to ask “How would amnesty affect the demographics of American voters?”
1. Amnesty would initially lead to about 11 million new citizens who would have the right to bring their relatives to the U.S.
2. According to a Princeton researcher, each immigrant would bring 2.1 family members to the U.S.A.
3. On basis of the above point, this would mean an increase of about 34 million new citizens, most of them low-skilled and poorly educated.
4. If half of these citizens vote, that would add about 17 million new voters who would owe their loyalty to the Democrats. You can be sure the Democrats know this.
If amnesty happens now, the Republican Party will start to vanish. Of the seven states with the highest number of immigrants, only Texas and Florida have not yet turned firmly Blue.
This is not to say that the Republican Party doesn’t need to do a better job of wooing the Hispanic vote. But a cheap political stunt like support for a modified Dream Act is not going to buy a great number of Hispanic votes. Furthermore, it will cause many who presently vote Republican to go elsewhere. These people do not like the idea of rewarding those who have broken our laws.
If Republicans are serious about increasing their share of the Hispanic vote, they will have to go to the precincts where Hispanics live and show them they are truly interested in them. They will have to explain why the Republican message is best for all Americans. And they must continue to go back to these precincts, build networks, elect precinct Chairmen and Chairwomen who are on the ground. It will be difficult, costly and time consuming, but preparing the soil is necessary if one wants a good harvest.
The establishment of the Republican Party is like a man walking in the desert. He is thirsty, but knows the road to the oasis ahead is long and arduous. Hoping for an easier path, he searches the horizon and thinks he sees a grove of palm trees just a little way off his present track. He knows he will reach water if he stays on his present path, but the palm grove in the near distance is seductive. Unfortunately, the palm grove is nothing more than a mirage. Setting off for it would prove fatal. Which road do you think the Republican Party should take?